The EPA on Wednesday announced its proposal for strict new measures to curb emissions of the nation’s vehicle fleet.
The measures require average annual emissions to be reduced by about 13%, and if approved would be phased in over model years 2027 through 2032.
According to the EPA’s estimates, achieving the target would require approximately 60% of all new light vehicles sold to be electric by 2030, increasing to 67% by 2032.
EVs accounted for 5.8% of new light vehicles sold in 2022 and roughly 7.2% in the first quarter of 2023, meaning a tenfold increase from the current rate would be required.
The EPA announced a separate proposal for medium-duty vehicles that would require 46% of new vehicles sold to be EVs by 2032.
In its proposal, the EPA estimated the measures would require the average cost of a vehicle to grow by about $1,200, but with owners saving $9,000 on average via lower fuel and maintenance costs over the typical eight-year ownership period for a vehicle.
The new measures are stricter than the Biden administration’s non-binding target announced in 2021 to have 50% of new vehicles sold being electrified by 2030, which would include plug-in hybrids—a target most automakers agreed to meet.
Automakers may not be so accepting of the new measures. Major and speedy investments in charging infrastructure would be required if EV sales were to grow as fast as the EPA estimates, and there would also have to be major changes in supply chains and training programs to support not only the production of EVs but also their maintenance and end of cycle requirements down the road.