Milan-San Remo begins in Pavia for the first time this year, as the race is not allowed in Milan itself any more, but it is still the longest Monument, the same gruelling 288 kilometres leading into the Via Roma in San Remo after the ascents of the Cipressa followed by the Poggio, the race’s final climb.
Judging by Tadej Pogačar’s form and bravery at Strade Bianche earlier in March, it might be an atypical edition, with attacks from far out traditionally failing. However, if the Slovenian is on form, tradition could be turned on its head.
It is also Mathieu van der Poel’s road debut for 2024, with last year’s winner hoping to hit the ground running, as his training partner Pogačar did a fortnight previously. All eyes will be on that pair, but it is a race which is hard to pick favourites for, such is the breadth of possibilities. Crucially, however, there is no Wout van Aert, with the Belgian opting to skip it to train at altitude for bigger goals.
Historically a race for the sprinters, La Classicissima has gradually become a race for the all rounder, like a Pogačar or a Van der Poel. Grand Tour winners like Vincenzo Nibali are counted among the list of recent winners, as are an array of puncheurs including Julian Alaphilippe, Wout van Aert and Jasper Stuyven. It has not been won by a pure sprinter since Frenchman Arnaud Démare triumphed in 2016.
One former sprint winner, Mark Cavendish, will skip the opportunity to race a final Milan-San Remo, as his team, Astana Qazaqstan, are prioritising the need to win vital UCI points. The 38-year-old won the 2009 edition of the Classic on debut.
“Milan-San Remo will always be a special race for me but this season I also have a job to do,” he said.
“I rode it last year,” he added. “It’s changed as a race to what it once was, when I won it.
“The sport is what it is. I always watch the big one day races and I’ll watch it with my son Casper, he loves the Classics, so it will still be a special day for me.”
Key sector: the Poggio
(Image credit: Getty Images / Luca Bettini)
The final climb of the race before the descent into San Remo, the Poggio has a long history of being the launchpad for various race winning moves over the years. Vincenzo Nibali launched his winning attack on the climb in 2018, and Matej Mohorič followed suit four years later.
The ascent starts just six kilometres from the finish, teams often jostle for position at the head of the race as the bottom of the climb approaches as the sharp left turn into the Poggio is narrow and can easily catch you out. It’s often the case that the first ten to fifteen riders into that key corner will be those that battle it out in the finale once the slope ramps up.
The contenders
Mathieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Van der Poel will be making his season debut at San-Remo which will also mean a first outing for his new rainbow jersey as World Champion as he attempts to defend the title he won last year on the Via Roma. Alongside Pogačar, he will be the joint favourite for victory this time out.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
So far so good for Pogačar in 2024. The Slovenian won Strade Bianche on his season debut with an impressive solo effort from more than 80 kilometres out which means he is bang in form heading into San Remo. Pogačar won’t want to carry anyone to the finale, so could look to attack early, maybe even before the typical launch pad, the Poggio, given his recent exploits.
Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)
(Image credit: Getty / Marco Bertorello)
Pidcock was fourth at Strade Bianche, his last appearance in a one-day race, and eighth at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad just before that. The descent from the Poggio seems tailor made for his attributes as a rider and he is more than capable of attacking over the top and staying away. The Yorkshireman’s current form suggests that a podium place is certainly within reach.
Caleb Ewan (Jayco-AlUla)
The Australian sprinter already has one victory to his name this season, a stage win on the opening day at the Tour of Oman. He also finished 15th on stage two at Tirreno-Adriatico. Milan-San Remo is a race he seems to thrive in and he has finished second twice in 2018 and 2021. The Poggio isn’t tough enough to distance the likes of Ewan completely. Nobody will want to take him into the finish in the Via Roma.
Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious)
(Image credit: Getty Images / Marco Bertorello)
Last time out, Mohorič achieved fifth place at Strade Bianche and won’t have raced again until he returns to San Remo, a race he infamously won, with the aid of a dropper seat post, in 2023. Prior to Strade Bianche, the Slovenian finished 24th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad before finishing 79th at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, two results which by his own admission, he was disappointed with.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Philipsen had a disappointing Opening Weekend in Belgium, 66th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and 92nd at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, but bounced back with a bunch sprint victory on stage two of Tirreno-Adriatico. Similarly to Ewan, Philipsen is the type of sprinter that is capable of getting over the Poggio with relative ease and holding his own when the attacks start raining down.
Past winners
2023: Mathieu van der Poel (Ned) Alpecin-Deceuninck 2. Filippo Ganna (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers 3. Wout van Aert (Bel) Jumbo-Visma
2022 Matej Mohorič (Slo) Bahrain Victorious
2021 Jasper Stuyven (Bel) Trek-Segafredo