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Until now, whenever there’s been mountains or rolling terrain in the Tour de France, UAE Team Emirates have gone on the offensive, eager to give Tadej Pogačar the biggest possible lead in the yellow jersey.
And it’s worked: at the race’s second rest day, the Slovenian has an advantage of 3:09 to the defending champion Jonas Vingegaard, having already won three stages, the same number of stages that have been won by the breakaway.
But things are set to change in the final six days, with UAE Team Emirates prepared to let more breakaways go the distance, dampening some expectations that Pogačar might emulate his tally of six stage wins at May’s Giro d’Italia.
As well as Pogačar sitting at the top of the pile, UAE have two other riders in the top-10 of the general classification: João Almeida in fourth, and Adam Yates, third last year, in seventh.
Asked by CW if the team would ride more conservatively in the third and final week, Almeida said: “Definitely. We have a really good gap, we don’t have to attack anymore, and we can just follow the wheel.
“Maybe some breakaways can go so other teams can also have a chance. Of course, if there is a good stage for us and Tadej wants to win, then of course we can go for it, but I think we can be a bit more chill now.”
That shouldn’t be construed as Pogačar’s team taking their foot off the gas, though. “Of course we have to always keep the focus, like we have always been doing,” added Almeida, riding his first Tour. “Six stages to go and it only ends in Nice, and anything can happen until there. The Tour is not won at all, we need to be focused.”
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Matxin Fernández, UAE’s sports manager, said that “I am convinced” that Vingegaard and his Visma-Lease a Bike team would attempt something audacious to try and steal the yellow jersey off Pogačar.
“We expect attacks, we expect movements, but we have confidence in Tadej and the team,” the Spaniard said. “Three minutes is a perfect situation, but in one day a lot can change.
“Right now, I think the advantage we have is comfortable. Visma would have to move like they did today [on stage 15], and we’ll try to defend ourselves and see if we can finish with the character we’ve shown so far.”
Friday’s stage 19 crosses up and over the Cime de la Bonette, the highest road in the Alps at 2,802m, before a tough summit finish at Isola 2000. That looks set to be the biggest challenge facing Pogačar as he seeks to win the Tour for a third time in five years.
“The last three stages are very difficult,” Matxin noted. “We have been in Isola for the [June] training camp, especially to see the last two road stages and the time trial.
“We know them, we climbed up to Bonette at 2,800m, and Friday and Saturday are very difficult. The Sunday time trial [in Nice] is also very complicated. We are going to have to be careful and trust in our cyclists and our plan.”
But UAE have complete faith in their star rider as he seeks to become the first man since Marco Pantani in 1998 to win the Giro and Tour in the same year. “It’s not that Tadej is getting better, but that he has a great recovery,” Matxin said.
“Maybe he rode the Giro d’Italia without exerting himself and being in the red… [and] he has a fantastic daily recovery.”
Almeida added that Visma “probably lost a bit of morale” following Pogačar’s win on Plateau de Beille on stage 15 “because they saw that Tadej was stronger.
“If I was them and had nothing to lose, for sure I would try. They have a strong team, but Tadej is stronger.
“Anything can happen, for sure they will try something eventually, but we’re going to be prepared.”
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